News from the last 48 hours had a significant impact on the chances President Trump will be reelected, according to Greg Valliere. Moreover, although Valliere doesn’t expect the impeachment proceedings to end in Trump’s conviction, there are two scenarios that could change that outcome.

Valliere was a keynote speaker yesterday at the Schwab IMPACT conference in San Diego. He is the chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, an asset management firm based in Canada. Previously, he was with Horizon Investments.

The news from the last two days was a Washington Post poll showing that Trump would lose the 2020 election to Biden by 17%, to Warren by 15% and to Sanders by 14%. It also showed that only 32% of the public think Trump is trustworthy and honest.

Valliere called those results “astonishing.” He said it upended the prevailing view on Wall Street that Trump will win reelection. “Until last night, he was the clear favorite.”

The odds that he will be impeached before Christmas are 80%, according to Valliere. But, he said, the “big story” will be the Senate trial. “It will be really difficult to get 67 Senators to convict,” he said. To do that, 20 Republicans would have to vote that way. He said Mitt Romney and Susan Collins might vote for conviction, but few others are likely to do so.

“I don’t see it,” Valliere said.

Valliere conceded that there are two scenarios – he called them “asterisks” – that could translate to a Trump conviction. If the polls really change, that could that make Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell “really nervous.” The Senate is the “firewall” against programs such as Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, and the Senate has approved 150 new judges, all selected by Trump.

“He doesn’t want to risk that,” Valliere said.

The bigger wildcard, though, is what new information will be revealed about Trump. Valliere said the book by Anonymous and John Bolton’s testimony will be a “big deal” – and there may be more information forthcoming on Trump’s taxes.