Who’s Right? Tesla Bears versus Bulls
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. - F. Scott Fitzgerald You really don’t know the company until you buy the stock. It has happened to me a few times. We did hundreds of hours of research, bought a stock, and that act of buying activated new senses. I started seeing new angles. Something similar happened to me with Tesla, except I didn’t buy the stock, I bought a car. In late June 2019, I bought a Tesla Model 3. Most people would just enjoy driving such a car. Not me – I wrote about it for two or three hours a day (usually early in the morning). During evenings and on weekends I read anything I could find tangentially related to the EV industry. I discussed electric vehicles (EVs) with a lot of my friends, who helped me to shape and polish my thinking. Why did I spend so much time on this? I really wanted to understand the impact EVs will have on everything, from a drop in the demand for oil, to an increase in the demand for other energy sources, to the transformation of geopolitics, to changes in the trucking industry and the implications for railroads, to … the list goes on and will continue to grow. There was also an element of natural curiosity. I learned a lot, and the process of learning brings incredible satisfaction. There were also offensive and defensive business reasons: I am always looking for new investments, and a lot of opportunities will be created by the transition to EVs. On the other hand, EV disruption will claim its victims – stocks to avoid. And finally, I was able to develop several mental (thinking) models, which I will be able to apply to other investments. I knew this article was going to be long when I sat down to write it. I did not realize that it would span 37 pages. There is no way most of my readers will read an article this long, so I’ll give you a few options. You can read part one below; but if you want to read the other parts, click here and parts 2 through 11 will be emailed to you once per weekday (you get weekends off to catch up on my other articles). And if you’re a better listener than reader, check out my podcast, where my articles are read by a professional narrator. The analysis will be released a 2-part episode in the upcoming weeks.