Greg Valliere: Trump Could be Reelected
To the dismay of some and the delight of others, Donald Trump could win reelection in 2020, according to Greg Valliere. Trump, he said, has no strong primary challengers among Republicans, nor are there any Democrats likely to defeat him in the general election.
Valliere is the chief global strategist for Horizon Investments. He was a keynote speaker at the FPA Norcal conference in San Francisco on May 29.
To be fair, Valliere did not predict that Trump would even seek reelection. Nor did he say that he favored Trump. Valliere was careful to note that he takes a nonpartisan position on political issues.
I’ve covered Valliere’s talks in the past and his track record is mixed. In a talk in 2016, he predicted a Hillary Clinton victory – with the only question being the size of her electoral margin.
If Trump wants the nomination, he will get it assuming his health is okay, according to Valliere. Trump is about to turn 72, and Valliere sounded skeptical as to whether he will remain healthy enough to serve another four-year term.
Among Republican contenders, Valliere said that John Kasich won’t beat Trump, because in 2016 he lost every primary except Ohio, where he was the governor. Neither Marco Rubio nor Mitt Romney can prevail, he said. Nikki Haley is a viable candidate, according to Valliere, but she won’t be ready in 2020.
Who do the Democrats have? Valliere was pessimistic. Bernie Sanders, he said, is still infuriated by not getting a fair shot at the nomination in 2016. Joe Biden is too long winded. The great unknown, Valliere said, is Elizabeth Warren, who is an “electrifying demagogue” but “quite polarizing.” There could be some unexpected challengers, he said, like Senators Kamala Harris (CA), Corey Booker (NJ), Kristen Gillibrand (NY), or John Hickenlooper (governor of Colorado).