Venerated Voices™ 2016 Q2 Rankings
Advisor Perspectives, a leading publisher serving financial advisors and the financial advisory community, has announced its Venerated Voices™ awards for commentaries published in Q2 2016. Rankings were issued in three categories: The Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Firm, The Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Author and The Top 10 Venerated Voices™ by Commentary.
Leading the Top 25 Venerated Voices™ by Firm category was ReSolve Asset Management of Toronto, Canada, followed by Robert W. Baird & Co. of Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In third place was Richard Bernstein Advisors of New York City.
Among individual commentators, the most-widely read was Adam Butler of ReSolve Asset Management, followed by Ben Inker and Jeremy Grantham of GMO. Third place went to Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates.
The most-widely read commentary of Q2 was Bold, Confident and WRONG: Why You Should Ignore Expert Forecasts by Adam Butler of ReSolve Asset Management. Butler’s piece was published April 1 and encouraged investors to ignore expert forecasts when making their investment decisions, as they are immensely flawed. He cited an important 1985 study by Dr. Philp Tetlock using 28,000 forecasts from 284 experts in various domains. The main conclusion was that expert forecasts were no better than random guesses and that simple algorithms outperformed the forecasts. Butler said that most investor portfolios reflect these forecasts and should instead use a “systematic approach” as their main strategy.
Coming in second was Your Portfolio Design: Assume the Fetal Position. Published June 4, Mauldin’s weekly letter to readers was a recap of his Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference. Mauldin detailed the heavily bearish atmosphere at the conference and reiterated that successful investing isn’t very simple. Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher presented at the conference and discussed the tremendous market rally since 2009 as a result of the front-loaded Fed policy; Mauldin believes this was one of the biggest central bank policy errors in history. The key takeaway from the conference: defensive positioning.
Steve Blumenthal of CMG Capital Management Group took third place with On My Radar: A Powerful and Reliable Determinant of Long-Term Investment Return, published April 13. Blumenthal said valuations still matter and are a determinant of long-term investment returns. He detailed a handful of valuation metrics, most of them extremely overvalued today. He believes the historical median P/E over the last 10 years gives clues to the outcome of the next 10 years. Blumenthal believes the high margin debt is an indicator that we’re moving into a new bear market. Even with the current overvaluations, he is optimistic and thinks we should all be playing defensively.
Advisor Perspectives’ website currently attracts over 160,000 unique visitors per month, virtually all of them financial advisors serving high- and ultra-high net worth individuals. The company publishes economic and market commentaries submitted by fund companies, advisors and independent research firms. In Q2 2016, over 1,000 such commentaries were published and made available through a daily newsletter, Research Perspectives, which the company emails to its subscribers.
Venerated Voices™ rankings were determined by the number of unique readers of each commentary, using data provided electronically by the third-party web analytics service Google Analytics. The data were normalized to reflect the fact that usage of Advisor Perspectives’ website grew steadily over the course of the quarter. For the annual awards for the firm and author, a minimum of three commentaries must have been submitted during the year. Any participant is eligible to receive a quarterly award. Each firm and author was assigned a relative score, with a score of 138 equal to average readership.
Advisor Perspectives was founded in 2007 and is based in Lexington, Massachusetts. In addition to Research Perspectives, it publishes a widely read weekly newsletter, Advisor Perspectives, which contains original articles on the markets, the economy and practice management.
Advisor Perspectives will continue providing quarterly updates to its rankings, as well as issuing annual Venerated Voices™ awards.