Understanding Fat Tail Returns
Much statistical analysis in finance depends on the assumption that variables have normal distributions. This assumption is far from correct. As a result, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb has rightly pointed out, most statistical results in finance are wrong. Now, a disciple of Taleb has tried to extend Taleb’s research by relating it to an obscure mathematical concept.
A Signal to Buy 30-Year Bonds
A technical indicator with a reliable history is signaling that 30-year Treasury yields will soon decline.
How to Illustrate Planning Risks to Clients
Clients face three big risks in retirement from the sequence of returns, volatility and asset shortfalls. Michael Hirthler, the founder and chief investment officer at Pennsylvania-based Jacobi Capital Management, explained to me how he uses the Big Picture app to explain those risks to his clients.
ESG Investors are Having a Positive Impact on the Environment
A goal of environmental, governance and sustainable (ESG) investing is to reduce carbon emissions and improve the quality of the environment. New research shows this effort is succeeding.
He May Never Walk Again
Even the most promising future can change drastically by a life-threatening event. A healthy individual may require around-the-clock care and supervision after an accident, creating the need to solve complex financial planning problems.
The Minimum Wage and the Cost of Living
President Biden’s coronavirus stimulus package has the intention of flooding the economy with money at a time when economic growth is sputtering. Ironically, it contains one provision likely to create exactly the opposite of what he intends: raising the national minimum wage from $7.25 to $15.00 per hour.
Harvard Critics Ask Supreme Court to Ban Race in Admissions
Opponents of Harvard College’s affirmative action policies asked the Supreme Court to bar colleges from using race as an admissions factor, setting up what could be a defining showdown for higher education and the court’s conservative majority.
Tech Gets Congress Antitrust Warning: ‘Change Is Coming’
House lawmakers kicked off an effort to tackle dominant technology companies, vowing a revamp of competition laws to curb their power.
Ten-Year Rate Spike Sinks Tesla and ARKK, Deepening Tech Carnage
The rout in popular technology shares accelerated after the 10-year Treasury rate spiked as much as 23 points, fueling worry that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates.
Retirement Planning in the Post-4% World
Today’s low bond yields and high equity valuations have led many to jettison the traditional 4% initial safe-withdrawal rate assumption. But I will show that the optimal “safe” withdrawal rate depends considerably on the retiree.
Powell Goes Easy on Surging Yields While Central Bank Peers Fret
The unprecedented $9 trillion rescue mission by central banks to haul the world economy from its coronavirus recession is being tested as rising bond yields and inflation bets threaten their ability to keep borrowing costs down.
Tencent-Backed Edtech Startup Seeks Funding at $20 Billion Value
Tencent Holdings Ltd.-backed Yuanfudao is seeking fresh funding at a valuation of more than $20 billion, people familiar with the matter said, as the cash-burning battle in China’s online education arena shows no sign of abating.
With Tech Oligarchy Shaken, Active Funds Are Having a Great Time
Turmoil in mega-caps like Apple Inc. is stirring investor anxiety. But for professional stock pickers, it’s mostly good news when the market’s biggest companies loosen their grip.
The Pandemic Has Exposed the Gap in Women’s Financial Needs
Increased marital stress is highlighting the financial challenges divorce brings, especially to women.